umlaut energy trade

White paper

The development of energy trading up until 2030 a look at the future

The increasing importance of flexibility in the energy market and in energy trading. How municipal utility companies will need to position themselves.

With an increasing percentage of renewable energy in the national electricity mix, the impact of unpredictable, weather-related fluctuations in power generation from photovoltaic systems and wind power is becoming steadily greater. Combining this with the loss of conventional base-load power plants and the changes to regulatory requirements that can be expected in the coming years will mean that both electricity prices on the spot markets and the demand for system services will be likely to rise continuously in the future. Because of the increasingly volatile nature of power generation, it will also become increasingly difficult to make accurate prognoses for power generation.

This fundamental change in the energy market means that energy suppliers will in future face enormous economic challenges. Studies have shown that energy suppliers will in future need to place more focus on obtaining higher quality forecasts in order to avoid the use of energy balancing products as far as possible, as these will in future become significantly more expensive. In addition to this, there will be a significantly greater incentive, in particular for municipal utility companies, to use flexible producers and consumers as a means of balancing out their own portfolio.

In order to ensure a secure and economically viable supply of electricity from regenerative sources as we head into the future, players in the market will need to assess developments in technology and estimate the costs as early as possible and will need to make sure that they are well-prepared. In our White Paper on Energy Trading 2030, a team of experts from umlaut have collaborated with MAON to look at the changes we can expect in energy trading in the next eight years. A series of expert interviews with various players in the energy sector forms the qualitative basis for their considerations. The quantitative study draws on a fundamental simulation of the electricity market, based on the Ten Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) up until the year 2030. The studies listed illustrate trends in the sector and highlight areas where action by policymakers is required, and are intended to make a contribution to the discourse on regulatory adjustments in the design of the electricity market.

Conclusion: A secure, economically viable and sustainable supply of electricity will in future only be achievable through a decentralised and digitalised energy system.

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